Forecasting TRAX US Sales...

4996 Views 11 Replies 5 Participants Last post by James, Jun 17, 2014

Kooper

Discussion Starter · May 1, 2014

So looking over Canadian sales data the Soul and TRAX are about equal when it comes to popularity...

2013 Sales:

TRAX: 7,013
Soul: 7,618

2014 YTD:

TRAX: 1,448
Soul: 1,819

So now lets get a little bit creative and see if we can't forecast a bit...

In 2013 TRAX sold 92% of the Souls volume

I'm going to leave 2014 YTD out of the equation as the sample size is too small IMO. Plus KIA would of liquidated all remaining stock to make from for the updated Soul...

ANYWAYS, If we now take the KIA souls 2013 US sales number of 118,079 and assume the same 92% percent of volume TRAX had in Canada, we get 108,632 units.

I don't think Chevrolet would be disappointed with that

What do you think??

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cfrp

· #2 · May 2, 2014

canadian sales are verrryy different than us sales

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Kooper

Discussion Starter · #3 · May 2, 2014

cfrp said:
canadian sales are verrryy different than us sales

not as much as you would like to believe. The markets are becoming increasingly identical. Northern state shoppers actually have far more in common with Canadian shoppers than they do with Southern state shoppers.

Sure the volumes are vastly different, but its usually by a multiple of 10...

And chevy has cited the KIA Soul as their prime motivation for moving the TRAX into the US. I'm almost positive they watched how the TRAX compared against the Soul in the Canadian market. The countries may be different in name but the vehicles stay the same...

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TrainTrax

· #4 · May 6, 2014

I think that that would be a fairly accurate forecast. Is there anything different about the American market that may impact sales? Do they take to small cars as much?

I know that the Micra is only sold in Canada because Canada has more of a taste for small cars.

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Kooper

Discussion Starter · #5 · May 7, 2014

TrainTrax said:
I think that that would be a fairly accurate forecast. Is there anything different about the American market that may impact sales? Do they take to small cars as much?

I know that the Micra is only sold in Canada because Canada has more of a taste for small cars.

There is more a preference for small cars in Canada but I believe thats because In canada most people are clustered in urban enviros where as in the states there are americans EVERYWHERE.

The biggest differences come in the form of options, canadians take their winters very seriously so theres often a heavy skew towards AWD (if avial) as well as things like heated cheeks, mirrors even steering wheels.

The reason I dont think the difference matters much in this context is because America already clearly has a taste for the Soul, and they like it

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cfrp

· #6 · May 8, 2014

maybe in the coast and northern states

but anything central or south

very different car buyers

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Kooper

Discussion Starter · #7 · May 8, 2014

cfrp said:
maybe in the coast and northern states

but anything central or south

very different car buyers

yes in terms of options, but drivers everywhere are all aiming at similar goals, reduce fuel costs...

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cfrp

· #8 · May 9, 2014

i dont doubt that

but id say those in central and south are looking at midsize or full size

where as those farther up north or along the coast shop for much smaller cars.

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James

· #9 · Jun 14, 2014

thats how it always is
i always notice a lot of SUV's and trucks in those area's and most of the time those trucks aren't pulling anything and have empty beds

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rmouthaan

· #10 · Jun 17, 2014

Don't forget GM's target audience for the Trax: young urban people who want a small parkable car for work or pleasure in downtown. They carry cell phones, Ipads, purses, murses, cups of coffee etc.
The Trax is ready to accomodate these gadgets, is easy to drive and park, easy to step in.
I think it will do well in this area.
I am not young, I don't need the car for work and I don't bring coffee in my car. Yet the Trax works for me very well, so it caters more audience than GM's intended target.
I think it will do well with people like me too.

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